Toddobaadkii hore, suuqu waxa uu saadaaliyay in yuan-ku uu ku sii dhawaanayo 7 yuan marka loo eego dollarka ka dib markii uu hoos u dhac weyn ku yimid sanadka soo socda ee Agoosto 15.
Sebtembar 15-keedii, yuan-ka badda ayaa hoos uga dhacay 7 yuan marka loo eego doolarka Mareykanka, taasoo dhalisay dood kulul oo suuqa ah.Laga bilaabo 10-ka saac ee Sebtembar 16, yuan-ka badda ayaa ka ganacsanayay 7.0327 doolarka.Muxuu mar kale u jabiyay 7?Marka hore, tusmada dollarka ayaa sare u kacday.Sebtembar 5, index dollarku wuxuu mar kale ka gudbay heerka 110, isagoo garaacay 20-sano oo sarreeya.Tani waxay inta badan sabab u tahay laba arrimood: Cimilada aadka u daran ee dhowaan ka dhacday Yurub, xiisadaha tamarta ee ay sababeen iskahorimaadyada juqraafiyeedka, iyo rajada sicir bararka ee ka dhashay dib u soo kabashada qiimaha tamarta, kuwaas oo dhammaantood dib u cusbooneysiiyay khatarta hoos u dhaca caalamiga ah;Midda labaad, Guddoomiyaha Fed Powell ee "gorgorka" ee shirkii sannadlaha ah ee bangiga dhexe ee Jackson Hole bishii Agoosto ayaa kor u qaaday rajada heerka dulsaarka mar kale.
Marka labaad, khataraha dhaqaale ee Shiinaha ayaa kordhay.Bilihii la soo dhaafay, waxaa jiray arrimo badan oo saameeya horumarka dhaqaalaha: dib u soo kabashada cudurka ee meelo badan ayaa si toos ah u saameeya horumarka dhaqaalaha;Farqiga u dhexeeya saadka iyo baahida korontada ee meelaha qaar ayaa lagu qasbay in la gooyo korontada, taas oo saameynaysa dhaqdhaqaaqa caadiga ah ee dhaqaalaha;Suuqa hantida maguurtada ah waxaa saameeyay "mawjadaha kala go'a saadka", iyo warshado badan oo la xiriira ayaa sidoo kale saameeyay.Kobaca dhaqaalaha ayaa wajahaya hoos u dhac sanadkan.
Ugu dambeyntii, kala duwanaanshaha siyaasadda lacagta ee Shiinaha iyo Maraykanka ayaa sii qoto dheer, heerka dulsaarka muddada dheer ee ku faafay Shiinaha iyo Maraykanka ayaa si xawli ah u kordhay, heerka leexsan ee wax-soosaarka khasnadda ayaa sii kordhay.Hoos-u-dhaca degdegga ah ee faafitaanka u dhexeeya US iyo Shiinaha 10-sano ee curaarta khasnadda laga bilaabo 113 BP bilawga sanadka ilaa -65 BP Sebtembar 1 waxay keentay hoos u dhac joogto ah oo ku saabsan haysashada dammaanadda gudaha ee hay'adaha shisheeye.Dhab ahaantii, markii Maraykanku uu kordhay siyaasaddiisa lacageed iyo dollarku kor u kacay, lacagaha kale ee kaydka ah ee SDR (Xuquuqda Sawirka Gaarka ah) ayaa ku dhacay dollarka., Yuan onshore wuxuu ku kala iibsadaa 7.0163 doolarka.
Maxay noqon doontaa saameynta RMB "jebinta 7" ee ganacsiyada ganacsiga shisheeye?
Shirkadaha soo dejinta: Kharashku ma kordhin doonaa?
Sababaha muhiimka ah ee wareegan qiimaha RMB ee ka dhanka ah dollarka ayaa weli ah: balaarinta degdega ah ee farqiga u dhexeeya dulsaarka muddada dheer ee Shiinaha iyo Maraykanka, iyo hagaajinta siyaasadda lacagta ee Maraykanka.
Marka loo eego asalka sare u kaca dollarka Maraykanka, lacagaha kaydka ah ee SDR(Xuquuqda Sawirka Gaarka ah) ee dambiisha ku jira dhamaantood aad bay hoos ugu dhaceen marka loo eego dollarka Maraykanka.Laga soo bilaabo Jannaayo ilaa Agoosto, Euro waxa uu hoos u dhacay 12%, Pound-ka Ingiriiska waxa uu hoos u dhacay 14%, Yen-ka Japan waxa uu hoos u dhacay 17%, halka RMB uu hoos u dhacay 8%.
Marka la barbar dhigo lacagaha kale ee aan doollarka ahayn, hoos u dhaca yuan ayaa ahaa mid yar.Dambiisha SDR, marka lagu daro hoos u dhaca doolarka Mareykanka, RMB wuxuu qiimeeyaa lacagaha aan doollarka ahayn, mana jirto qiimo dhimis guud oo RMB ah.
Haddii shirkadaha wax la soo dejiyo ay isticmaalaan dejinta doollarka, kharashkeedu wuu kordhaa;Laakiin qiimaha isticmaalka euro, sterling iyo yen dhab ahaantii waa la dhimay.
Laga bilaabo 10 subaxnimo Sebtembar 16, euro wuxuu ka ganacsanayay 7.0161 yuan;Pound-ka ayaa lagu kala iibsaday 8.0244;Yuan waxa lagu kala iibsadaa 20.4099 yen.
Shirkadaha Dhoofinta: Saamaynta togan ee sarifku waa xadidan tahay
Shirkadaha dhoofinta ee inta badan isticmaalaya dejinta doollarka Mareykanka, shaki kuma jiro in qiimo-dhaca renminbi uu keeno war wanaagsan, faa'iidada ganacsiga si weyn loo horumarin karo.
Laakiin shirkadaha ku heshiiya lacagaha kale ee caadiga ah waxay weli u baahan yihiin inay si dhow isha ugu hayaan sarifka lacagaha.
Shirkadaha yaryar iyo kuwa dhexdhexaadka ah, waa in aan fiiro gaar ah u yeelannaa in muddada faa'iidada sarifku ay la mid tahay xilliga xisaabinta.Haddii ay jirto kala-bax, saamaynta togan ee sarifka lacagta ayaa noqon doonta mid aan muuqan.
Isbeddelka sarifku waxa kale oo uu keeni karaa in macaamiishu ay filayaan kor u kaca dollarka, taas oo keenta cadaadiska qiimaha, dib u dhigista lacag bixinta iyo xaalado kale.
Shirkaduhu waxay u baahan yihiin inay qabtaan shaqo wanaagsan oo ku saabsan xakamaynta khatarta iyo maareynta.Waa inaysan kaliya baarin asalka macaamiisha si faahfaahsan, laakiin sidoo kale, marka loo baahdo, qaataan tillaabooyin sida ku habboon kordhinta saamiga deebaajiga, iibsashada caymiska amaahda ganacsiga, adeegsiga dejinta RMB illaa iyo inta suurtogalka ah, xiritaanka sicirka sarrifka iyada oo loo marayo "xayndaab" iyo soo gaabinta muddada ansaxnimada qiimaha si loo xakameeyo saamaynta xun ee isbedbedelka sarrifka.
03 Talooyin dejinta ganacsiga shisheeye
Isbeddelka heerka sarrifka waa seef laba af leh, qaar ka mid ah ganacsiyada ganacsiga shisheeye waxay bilaabeen inay si firfircoon u hagaajiyaan " sarrifka qufulka" iyo qiimaha si kor loogu qaado tartankooda.
Talooyin IPayLinks: Xudunta u ah maaraynta khatarta sarifka lacagaha ayaa ku jirta "ilaalinta" halkii ay ka ahaan lahayd "qiimaynta", iyo "qufulka sarrifka" (hedging) waa qalabka ugu badan ee la isticmaalo sarifka lacagaha qalaad hadda.
Marka la eego isbeddelka sarrifka RMB ee ka dhanka ah doollarka Mareykanka, shirkadaha ganacsiga shisheeye waxay diiradda saari karaan warbixinnada ku habboon ee kulanka dejinta heerka dulsaarka FOMC ee Federaalka Sebtember 22, waqtiga Beijing.
Marka loo eego CME's Fed Watch, suurtagalnimada in Fed uu kor u qaado heerka dulsaarka 75 dhibcood Sebtembar waa 80%, iyo suurtogalnimada kor u qaadista heerka dulsaarka 100 dhibcood waa 20%.Waxa jirta 36% fursada korodhka 125 dhibcood ee korodhka ah bisha Noofambar, 53% fursada korodhka 150 dhibcood iyo 11% fursada 175 dhibcood korodhka.
Haddii Fed uu sii wado inuu kor u qaado heerka dulsaarka si xoog leh, index dollarka Mareykanka ayaa si xoog leh u kici doona mar kale dollarka Mareykanka ayaa xoojin doona, taas oo sii kordhin doonta cadaadiska qiimo dhimista ee RMB iyo lacagaha kale ee aan Maraykanka ahayn.
Waqtiga boostada: Seb-20-2022